Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedSholto Douglas: prediction
22 May 2025 Dwarkesh Podcast Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? — Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken
“Holding me accountable for my predictions next year, I really do think by the end of this year to this time next year, we will have software engineering agents that can do close to a day's worth of work for a junior engineer, or a couple of hours of quite competent, independent work.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Sholto Douglas
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 22 May 2025
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…That's right. Would you have said that agents would be only this powerful as of last year? I think this is roughly on track for where I expected with software engineering. I think I expected them to be a little bit better at computer use. But I understand all the reasons for why that is, and I think that's well on track to be solved. It's just a sort of temporary lapse. Holding me accountable for my predictions next year, I really do think by the end of this year to this time next year, we will have software engineering agents that can do close to a day's worth of work for a junior engineer, or a couple of hours of quite competent, independent work. Yeah, that seems right to me. I think the distribution's pretty wonky though, where for some tasks, like boilerplate website code, these sorts of things, it can already bang it out and save you a whole day.…
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