Adam Tooze: belief

Transcript context

…Will Hungary simply persist as a truly autocratic regime within the European Union? Very difficult to tell. I agree, it’s flying under the radar right now. It’s one of the places where financial discipline might actually help. Orbán has been incredibly fortunate in the macroeconomic conditions which he’s enjoyed for his experiment. Financial markets have not punished him for his economic nationalism. And the current environment, which is much less friendly to emerging market borrowers, may be a lot tougher for him. Likewise, the massive downturn in the auto industry. Hungary is basically an extension of the German car plant system. And where global demand for German cars turns down, Hungary gets very badly hit. So it’s not obvious to me that Orbán’s formula will in fact work in a less friendly economic environment, the one he’s enjoyed. That’s a wait-and-see kind of a response. As of late, as you know, there’s been a deal where Turkey essentially keeps many North African refugees bottled up, so to speak, and they’re paid off by the European Union. There were signs that deal may be collapsing, possibly on both sides. If that deal collapses, how does the European Union respond, and what does that world then look like? What stops the massive flow of refugees coming up through Eastern Europe?…

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