Luke Drago: belief

Transcript context

…Yeah, Actually, let's dig into that a bit more and think about which sectors or which jobs or tasks would be protected from automation. And I've suggested some mechanisms of protection that we can talk about, where, for example, if you're a lawyer, there might be kind of legal restrictions on replacing you. I don't think we're going to see an AI judge employed by the government very soon. Or at least, I don't think we're going to see that until, that's basically probably the last job to be automated. So how do you think about legal restrictions to automation and could those become more important as we face this increased market pressure to automate? Derek Chang, who's at the Windfall Trust now, but was at Convergence Analysis, Convergence Research, one of those. I think there's a lot of things with similar names in this space. Derek has a really good piece on what jobs are likely to be more and less resilient to automation. And there's some of the ones that you expect. Obviously, things like physical labor is more resistant right now. And I think there was a story for 50 years that automation hits physical labor first and mental labor second, and actually we're seeing the exact opposite given a way we're making progress and capabilities. I think your judge point is actually quite interesting to me, and I think it's correct. The jobs that have strong legal protections are going to be harder to automate. Now, of course, that doesn't mean the people who are in those jobs aren't going to automate their own work. And this is both an example of opportunity here and also an example for some sort of gradual disempowerment where you just automate a way to a generic model that makes decisions on your behalf. I think it'd be a bad world, potentially, if every judge was using the same AI model to make the same decisions. And great, there is a human judge, but it's the same prompt, same output. At the very least, you'd want some more diversity that represents the actual beliefs, feelings, understandings that the judge involves. Other roles that I think make sense here to talk about, lawyers, kind of. I think the lawyers who are at the partner level are going to be very easy to not automate. Paralegals are a different story. And I think like entry level law work is an interesting one here because of course, your first year lawyers who've just been hired, their job is mostly grunt work. And if a firm can hire half as many of them, it might be the case that on paper, it's hard to automate lawyers, but the law firms who have lawyers working there automate their own work to such a degree that either A, you get an abundance of new law firms arising, or B, larger ones continue to accumulate capital without hiring new people. And I think an important question for what happens next is, at that moment of initial automation where a whole lot of entry-level jobs get cut and we start to be reduced, what happens next? Is it A, that large firms continue to grow and monopolize the industries? or B, that we get an abundance of smaller firms that allow for more diverse economic output. We are very, Rudolph and I are much more excited about that second world than that first one, the one where this creates a bunch of opportunity, but I don't think it's by default. I think we have a lot of work to do to get there. Yeah, It's actually an interesting point that you could see a job such as being a judge staying and not being automated, but in practice being automated because the judge is using an AI model to make educated guesses about cases. And so that would be a way for society to maintain the formal structures we have today and without actually thinking about which functions in society we're interested in automating. And so I think that would be quite a bad situation to end up in, because then we haven't actually grappled with the question about whether we want to outsource kind of the profession of being a legal judge to AI.…

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