Benjamin Moser: prediction

Transcript context

…Now, as you probably know, at least in broad-brush terms, manufacturing used to be about a third of Brazilian GDP, and now it’s about a tenth. That’s a big drop, so Brazil is de-industrializing. What is the political economy of a future de-industrialized Brazil? I think you’re seeing it now. I think that the idea of free trade — and I know you’re an economist, so you know more about this than I do — but the idea of free trade is, “Let’s just figure out where it’s cheaper to make this. If we can make this in Guangzhou and ship it over to Sao Paulo for cheaper than it would cost to set up something in Sao Paulo, then let’s do it that way.” Of course, it’s caused great, great instability. It’s caused a rise in extremism, as we’ve seen in so many countries. It has a slightly different tinge there, but it’s basically the same problem, I think. It’s fascinating that in the last 20 years, the main Latin American ideology since World War II, which was import substitution — gone, so you have the market just flooded with cheap shit from all over the place. That offers a seemingly attractive option to consumers, but ultimately, Brazil has not done very well in the last couple of generations. What do you think is the underrated Brazilian city to visit?…

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