Bret Taylor: prediction

Transcript context

…Yeah, there's a few lens you can have on it. One is that you get more alignment, like usage-based is more aligned than other ways of charging. As you say, it's more efficient because you're incentivized to drive the right outcomes. People also make the analogies to it's almost more correct for the labor substitution dynamics that you get, or just because you have real inference costs, you kind of have to do a usage-based model. I mean, do those factor in at all, or it would not be possible, almost, to do a fixed-price contract? I would actually argue outcomes-based is pretty different than usage-based. Just because think of it this way. If you have an AI agent that is making sales for Stripe to small businesses, and I told you I will sell one-tenth the number of new Stripe GMV, however you value that, but I'll use one one-hundredth of the tokens, you probably wouldn't care. You care about the value to your top line of your business. I would argue there's not a strong correlation between token usage or utilization and value. There may be, but there's not always. There was that infamous, I think it was called Folklore, but it's this website where that Apple engineer used to put just all this Apple folklore. Folklore.org.…

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