John Schulman: prediction

Transcript context

…Maybe a final question. We've touched on this in different ways but let’s put it together. You said you're training on much more multimodal data. Presumably, these things understand what screens look like and will be able to interact with them in a much more coherent way. Also you're going to do this long-horizon RL, so they'll be able to act as agents in the systems and be part of your workflow in a much more integrated way. What do you expect that to look like? What will be the next steps from there? Suppose by the end of the year or next year, you have something that's an assistant who can work with you on your screen. Does that seem like a sensible thing to expect? Where does it go from there? I definitely expect things to move in that direction. It's unclear what's going to be the best form factor. It could be something that's like a Clippy on your computer helping you or if it's more like a helpful colleague in the cloud. We'll see which kinds of form factors work the best. I expect people to try all of them out. I expect the mental model of a helpful assistant or helpful colleague to become more real. It’ll be something where you can share more of your everyday work. Instead of just giving it one-off queries, you would have a whole project that you're doing and it knows about everything you've done on that project so far. It can even proactively make suggestions. Maybe you can tell it to remember to ask me about this and if I've made any progress on it. Proactivity is one thing that's been missing. I'd love to see us moving away from one-off queries, using the model like a search engine, and more towards having a whole project that I'm doing in collaboration with the model. Something where it knows everything I've done. It's proactively suggesting things for me to try or it's going and doing work in the background. That's really interesting. This is the final question. What is your median timeline for when it replaces your job?…

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