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Stephen Kotkin: evaluation

10 Jul 2025 Dwarkesh Podcast Stephen Kotkin — How Stalin became the most powerful dictator in history

“The driver of your car works for Stalin, doesn't work for you, and is reporting any overheard conversations in the car.”

— Stephen Kotkin

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Speaker
Stephen Kotkin
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
evaluation
Recorded
10 Jul 2025
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

Transcript context

…Also, Mussollini, but never against Stalin. Why is that? Stalin is the guy who is building and personifying the system. The people around Stalin can see that he is unusually good at dictatorship. He is just carrying this entire system on his back through thick and thin, killing enemies, liquidating the kulaks, collectivizing agriculture, building a military-industrial complex, defeating Hitler in war. I mean, how much better from the system's logic, not from humanity's logic, not from the point of view of the kind of values that you and I share, how much better are you going to do than Stalin? So there is a way in which they're pygmies and he's Stalin. Of course, they know that they can't do what he does. If they tried to unseat him, they might save their lives but they might lose the revolution, the system and the radiant future, the overthrow of capitalism, the abundance, peace, paradise on earth. That's a big move to lose if you believe in that, if your life is about that and you're dedicated to that. But in addition, you have a collective action problem that's really important. Let's suppose that I'm in a Stalinist regime with you. You're a functionary and I'm a functionary. Stalin's collectivizing agriculture, which means he's destroying productivity, and we're going to be poor. All the way through the Brezhnev period, we're gonna be importing wheat even though we have this gigantic agricultural belt, wheat belt. Some people knew in real time that this was self-harm. I come to you and I say, “This Stalin guy, he's wrecking everything. We got to take him down.” You agree with me. But you know what? You don't know. Maybe I've been sent by Stalin to test your loyalty. Maybe I'm provoking you to reveal your disloyalty. Maybe I'm not being sincere. You agree with me, but instead of saying yes, let's do it, immediately you run to Stalin and you say that this Kotkin guy is talking behind your back about how we need to take you down. It’s self-preservation, you're going to preserve yourself because you don't trust. There's a lack of trust inside these dictatorships. If you knew that Stalin hadn't sent me for sure 100%, you would say, “You know, you're right. You got a point there. What can we do about this?” But you know that Stalin is constantly doing these provocations, or you suspect he is. You know that he's got people, provocateurs who are around the system doing things like this. The secret police are listening in on your phone conversations. The driver of your car works for Stalin, doesn't work for you, and is reporting any overheard conversations in the car. And the maid in your apartment is also working for the secret police and reporting up the chain of command. So the system that you're in enmeshes you in this distrust, in this surveillance and distrust. So what looks like, “Geez, let's just take him down and save our own life, let alone save the country.” Yes, it's logical, but that's not the kind of life that they led. his surveillance and distrust. So what looks like, “Geez, let's just take him down and save our own life, let alone save the country.” Yes, it's logical, but that's not the kind of life that they led. We would think that based upon the kind of lives and the system that we live in.…

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