Evidence receipt / evaluation
Published · transcript-backedTyler Cowen: evaluation
22 Apr 2020 Conversations with Tyler Philip E. Tetlock on Forecasting and Foraging as a Fox
“What do you think of the argument that science only exists at all Because most scientists are overconfident that if they were rational Bayesians, they would just latch onto the opinions of the smartest and best-trained people before them.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Tyler Cowen
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- evaluation
- Recorded
- 22 Apr 2020
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…We have lots of people competing in the marketplace of ideas for attention, and that’s a hard competition for scientists to beat. What do you think of the argument that science only exists at all Because most scientists are overconfident that if they were rational Bayesians, they would just latch onto the opinions of the smartest and best-trained people before them. That there’s only progress precisely because people are making forecasting mistakes. [laughs] Right. you’ll hear versions to that argument, I suppose, on Wall Street as well.…
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