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Published · transcript-backed

Casey Handmer: prediction

15 Aug 2025 Dwarkesh Podcast China is killing the US on energy. Does that mean they’ll win AGI? — Casey Handmer

“The mainstream view would say China has cheaper labor, which is no longer true, because they compare to Mexico.”

— Casey Handmer

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Speaker
Casey Handmer
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
prediction
Recorded
15 Aug 2025
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

Transcript context

…Is it going to be as cheap as it is to do in China? My views on this are somewhat different from the mainstream, which is great because this is a podcast. The mainstream view would say China has cheaper labor, which is no longer true, because they compare to Mexico. And it's got lower environmental regulations, which is true. And that it is more business friendly, which is absolutely crazy. There's no way you could justify that your company having to have an inspector from the CCP on its board who harasses you about Xi Jinping every day helps you do your business. And also the rule of law is not great. So you're constantly having to pay bribes to people in order to stay in business. The idea that the United States cannot compete against that with mostly or fully automated solar panel manufacturing in the United States—which has cheaper natural gas by far, abundant oil, abundant human resources, great financial capacity, world leading automation, etc.—is crazy. We could literally copy paste solar manufacturing factories. How much additional solar power capacity do you think we could be putting on, that's manufactured in the US, by 2028?…

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