Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedSholto Douglas: belief
22 May 2025 Dwarkesh Podcast Is RL + LLMs enough for AGI? — Sholto Douglas & Trenton Bricken
“I think what we're seeing now is closer to: lack of context, lack of ability to do complex, very multi-file changes… sort of the scope of the task, in some respects.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Sholto Douglas
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 22 May 2025
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…I think last year, you said that the thing that was holding them back was the extra nines of reliability. I don't know if that's the way you would still describe the way in which these software agents aren't able to do a full day of work, but are able to help you out with a couple minutes. Is it the extra nines that's really stopping you or is it something else? I think my description there was, in retrospect, probably not what's limiting them. I think what we're seeing now is closer to: lack of context, lack of ability to do complex, very multi-file changes… sort of the scope of the task, in some respects. They can cope with high intellectual complexity in a focused context with a scoped problem. When something's a bit more amorphous or requires a lot of discovery and iteration with the environment, with this kind of stuff they struggle more. Maybe the way I would define the thing that's holding them back like this. If you can give it a good feedback loop for the thing that you want it to do, then it's pretty good at it. If you can't, then they struggle a bit. For the audience, can you say more about what you mean by this feedback loop if they're not aware of what's happening with RL and so forth?…
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