David Rosenthal: uncertainty

Transcript context

…We talked about a lot on the Qualcomm episode, father of Information Theory, really the center of gravity for attracting tons of talent to MIT, and paving the way for what would become phone technology and telecommunications broadly in the future. But the fact that Berlekamp is crossing paths at MIT with Claude Shannon, so cool. So cool. Most importantly for this specific use case, Berlekamp had worked with John Kelly who developed the Kelly Criterion on bet sizing, which poker players will likely be well familiar with. With this combination now of much, much, much better and deeper data from Straus, and Berlekamp coming in and working with Ax on the models and saying, hey, we should be smart about the bet sizing that we’re doing in the trades that are coming out of these models, versus I don’t know what they were doing before. Maybe it was naive of every trade was the same, or we should actually be systematic about this. The models start really working. This is the turning point.…

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