David Rosenthal: prediction

Transcript context

…It was never true. It was never true. But then Starbucks really was like the... that was the second wave and it was the first time that this sort of orthogonal business model had emerged in coffee which was this idea of coffee as an experience, not just as a beverage. And Starbucks obviously rode that huge wave into becoming orders of magnitude bigger than Folgers and Maxwell House ever were. Then today you have the third wave coffee which is the sort of disaggregated, the artisanal brew, small batch roasting and brewing local coffee shops. But I think there’s this great analogy between all of that to the tech industry, and that the first wave being, you know, like to the tech industry and the internet, the first wave being AOL. Like everybody remembers the jingle and like it wasn’t nearly as good as it was supposed to be. The second wave being the truly compelling version of AOL being Facebook and social. And we talked about social media earlier and I think of Starbucks being the social place, Facebook being the social place, the insight being that once you bring human interaction into a market, you can completely transform it, and then you have the third wave today of the further disaggregation of everything happening on Facebook, that of course Facebook is a big part of with the messengers and WhatsApp and Snapchat and Instagram, taking the photos, but basically creating through tech, through data but also through humans matching the best of each individual element for you personalizing it to what you’re doing. So, would you summarize that as first wave being one size fits all but bad.…

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