Marc Andreessen: belief

Transcript context

…... in terms of IQ. Like, it just tops out at 160. The 160 IQ people are the ones who come up with new physics, there's only a small handful of those. Generally speaking, when we run into somebody in the world who's like incredibly smart, who's like a bestselling author, or like a, you know, one of the world's best, I don't know, research scientists, or one of the world's best doctors, whatever it would be, probably 140 is kind of the IQ that you're looking for there. If you're looking for a really good lawyer, it's probably 130. If you're looking for a really good line manager in a business, it's probably 110. If you're looking for an accountant, like a small business accountant, who's good at doing the books for small businesses, it's probably 105. Right? And so the kind of scope of impressive human... The ability of the human organism to do intellectually impressive things, it's sort of that 110 to 160 is kind of the spectrum, and good news is there's a lot of those people running around, but there's not that many at 140, 150, 160. But it's like, that's like the limitations of what can fit in here, right? And it's like, there's no theoretical limit on where this goes if you release the limitations of human biology, right? And so, can you have a... And you already have people running these experiments to kind of do human-equivalent kind of IQ for existing AI models. And by the way, existing AI models are kind of testing around the 130, 140 level, which means they're going to get to the 160 level. And they're arguably on the math side starting to get to the 160 level now. But I think we're going to have AI models relatively quickly that are going to be like 160, 180, 200, 250, 300. By the way, and I think that's great, right? I feel as great about that as I do about the fact that we occasionally get an Einstein. Right? It's like, would the world be better off or worse off with more or fewer Einsteins? And the answer is, of course the world would be better off with more Einsteins, and of course the world would be better off with machines that have more IQ like Einstein or greater than Einstein. But I think IQ of the machines is going to exceed that of the humans, I think that's really good. And then the performance, again, it goes back to like the AI coding thing that's happening. Performance against task is going to get better also. I think this is where Linus Torvalds in particular was like, "Yeah, okay, this thing is starting to generate better code than I can." Okay? So now we're going to have AI coders that are actually better coders than the best human coders. I think that's... Right? I think we're going to have AI doctors that are better than the best human doctors, I think we're going to have AI lawyers that are better than the best human lawyers, which actually is going to be very interesting to see, which we can talk about. Which I think is also great. octors, I think we're going to have AI lawyers that are better than the best human lawyers, which actually is going to be very interesting to see, which we can talk about. Which I think is also great. And so, I don't think there's a... I think we're used to living in a world where we just don't understand how good good can get, because we've been capped by our own biology. And we're going to get to experience what it's like when you have the capability at your fingertips, that's actually better than human in these domains. So you see what I'm saying, which is, like, I think this idea of human equivalent is just going to be a footnote. It's like, "Oh yeah, that was just on Tuesday, in 2026 is when they hit that." And it kind of didn't matter because the next question was, like, "Okay, what do we get to do in a world where we actually have machines that are better than that?" Right? And so, I think this is going to be much more of an exploratory process for actually seeding human capability than it's going to be any sort of particular singular singularity moment or whatever that happens, that just happens to coincide with the human threshold. 200 IQ, I... Just like that frame of reference is such a mind-expanding way to think about just how fast and how smart these things are going to get, and quickly.…

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