Demis Hassabis: belief

Transcript context

…Yeah. But it could also be sort of the pushback against hard takeoff scenario. It could be just a sequence of incremental improvements, like matrix multiplication. It has to sit there for days thinking how to incrementally improve a thing and it does solve recursively. And as you do more and more improvement, it’ll slow down. So there be, the path to AGI won’t be like a gradual improvement over time. Yes. If it was just incremental improvements, that’s how it would look. So the question is, could it come up with a new leap like the Transformers architecture? Could it have done that back in 2017 when we did it and Brain did it? And it’s not clear that these systems, something our AlphaVol wouldn’t be able to do, make such a big leap. So for sure these systems are good. We have systems I think that can do incremental hill climbing, and that’s a kind of bigger question about is that all that’s needed from here, or do we actually need one or two more big breakthroughs. And can the same kind of systems provide the breakthroughs also? So make it a bunch of S-curves like incremental improvement, but also every once in a while, leaps.…

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