Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedJon Y: belief
2 Oct 2024 Dwarkesh Podcast @Asianometry & Dylan Patel — How the semiconductor industry actually works
“Of course. I agree with you. But I also agree with Dylan. It can be achieved. ROI, TSMC does this.”
— Jon Y
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Jon Y
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 2 Oct 2024
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…Even that graph… The investment you have to make in GPT-4 over GPT-3 is 100X. The investment you had to make in GPT-5 over GPT-4 is 100X. Currently the ROI could be positive—this very well could be true, I think it will be true—but the revenue has to increase exponentially. Of course. I agree with you. But I also agree with Dylan. It can be achieved. ROI, TSMC does this. It invests $16 billion. It expects ROI. It does that. I understand that. That's fine. Lag all that. The thing that I don't expect is that GPT-5 is not here. It's all dependent on GPT-5 being good. If GPT-5 sucks, if GPT-5 looks like it doesn't blow people's socks off, this is all void. What kind of socks are you wearing, bro? Show them.…
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