Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedAdam Tooze: prediction
6 May 2020 Conversations with Tyler Adam Tooze on our Financial Past and Future
“Given that even in the Chinese case, we’re saying something closer to a swoosh than a V, the prospects in the West I think are, as I think you were suggesting, quite poor. It’s unclear to me how, as you were saying, a densely packed urban service sector, face-to-face–based economy of a city like New York — how it comes back under a regime of periodic lockdowns and managed social distancing.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Adam Tooze
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 6 May 2020
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…Given the low rate of immunity in most parts of China, shouldn’t we be fairly pessimistic about Chinese recovery right now? Exactly. Given that even in the Chinese case, we’re saying something closer to a swoosh than a V, the prospects in the West I think are, as I think you were suggesting, quite poor. It’s unclear to me how, as you were saying, a densely packed urban service sector, face-to-face–based economy of a city like New York — how it comes back under a regime of periodic lockdowns and managed social distancing. It’s just a huge experiment that we’re running. If there were a Chinese financial crisis coming out of coronavirus, what would that look like? What’s the weakest stress point?…
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