Andrej Karpathy — AGI is still a decade away

I was triggered by that because there's some over-prediction going on in the industry. In my mind, this is more accurately described as the decade of agents.

They don't have enough intelligence, they're not multimodal enough, they can't do computer use and all this stuff. They don't do a lot of the things you've alluded to earlier. They don't have continual learning.

It will take about a decade to work through all of those issues.

If somebody asks how long continual learning will take, I have no prior about whether this is a project that should take 5 years, 10 years, or 50 years.

I've been in AI for almost two decades. It's going to be 15 years or so, not that long.