Shawn Wang: belief

Transcript context

…Yeah. Really? Branch, branch prediction. Oh, well no, that, well, that’s, that’s too, that’s too low level, but yes. Sorry. Yeah, yeah, yeah. One question I gotta get, so like, uh, we actually did record a part with the, the beat folks. Uh, with Sarah right here, their chart is the human equivalent work, uh, hours of work rather than how long it has themselves are, are being [01:18:00] autonomous. And that, that’s a huge difference, right? Like human work, five hours agent work, 30 minutes, like it’s actually 30 minutes not, uh, yeah. Firearms, right? Like, so like that, that, that chart that you see is them estimating what the human equivalent replacement is. Um, I think the, I think actually Enro release a more recent chart. That showed cloud code autonomy from their production traffic numbers, and that was 20 to 45 minutes. That’s roughly where we are. So yeah. Yeah, that’s the sort of realistic thing. I mean, I, I do think like there’s experimental setups we can just like, Ralph with and like just prompt it to keep going, uh, when it stops. And obviously you can, that can go arbitrarily long, I feel like from my experience. Yeah. I guess 20 to 40 minutes seems right for when I’m using like Codex or cloud code. But then like what, I always try to just, like, if I wanna spin up like a new, there’s a net new project, I’ll, I’ll often start to rep it and like it’ll end for I believe, yeah, yeah. Like spin up like the, their new, like from the V three agent. Like it’ll spin up a web browser and like click around and discover new bugs and just keep churning. Um, so I, I think like my longest was like over an hour that, hey, I’ve been churning I think before we see super long running. I think there’s gonna be a bit of an efficiency hit. So. Sure you can take an hour and go down paths, but you also want you wanna be more efficient, you wanna be smarter in your reasoning, right? So I think that’ll actually go down before we go back up. Like, you don’t wanna scale non-optimized systems just for the heck of it. As much as I love saying, use all the tokens, um, you know, they are expensive. Like going from dance to reasoning models, that’s an added cost, right? You’re paying for a lot of tokens and it doesn’t make sense to just scale stuff that’s not optimized. So there’s, there’s always that little balance. Yeah. But you know. I think you’ll see both sides of it. Yeah. So 2023 was super exciting. I think if you were in SF you were like, okay, uh, I know this is gonna be a huge world changing moment, but it seemed like, you know, no one had known yet. And maybe even before, was it 2022 maybe?…

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