Ed Luce: prediction

Transcript context

…Let’s say we judge the liberalism of a country or society in terms of levels rather than rates of changes. The percentage of foreign‑born in the United Kingdom today, especially London, but not only, would be remarkably high by really any previous standards ‑‑ 1066, for that matter. There’s a movement back but it seems that gain has been captured permanently. It’s not that foreigners will en masse be driven out. Some people from the EU may be sent back home, but even that seems to be in more doubt now. Isn’t it just a slight retreat of liberalism after it won far greater gains than we might have rationally expected? It could be, and I hope it is. I’m certainly open to the prospect it might be. I argued to some degree ‑‑ well, successfully ‑‑ with my publishers, who wanted my book to be called “The Collapse of Western Liberalism.” I said, “No, no, this should be ‘The Retreat.'” Retreat implies the possibility of regrouping. I don’t think there’s a collapse going on here. I do think there is a severe structural challenge to the way we conduct liberal democracy in the West, particularly in the English‑speaking West. The outcome of the immigration, sort of, aspect of Brexit, I think is one of those things that’s going to be very hard to predict, because Theresa May, or whoever replaces her, British politics is Italianizing. There’s going to be another general election in a year. Maybe by the time this podcast is released. [laughs]…

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