Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedDemis Hassabis: prediction
28 Feb 2024 Dwarkesh Podcast Demis Hassabis — Scaling, superhuman AIs, AlphaZero atop LLMs, AlphaFold
“I will say that when we started DeepMind back in 2010, we thought of it as a 20-year project. And I think we’re on track actually, which is kind of amazing for 20-year projects because usually they’re always 20 years away.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Demis Hassabis
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 28 Feb 2024
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…Stepping back a bit, I’m curious what your timelines are. So Shane said his modal outcome is 2028. I think that’s maybe his median. What is yours? I don’t have prescribed specific numbers to it because I think there’s so many unknowns and uncertainties. Human ingenuity and endeavor comes up with surprises all the time. So that could meaningfully move the timelines. I will say that when we started DeepMind back in 2010, we thought of it as a 20-year project. And I think we’re on track actually, which is kind of amazing for 20-year projects because usually they’re always 20 years away. That’s the joke about whatever, quantum, AI, take your pick. But I think we’re on track. So I wouldn’t be surprised if we had AGI-like systems within the next decade. Do you buy the model that once you have an AGI, you have a system that basically speeds up further AI research? Maybe not in an overnight sense, but over the course of months and years you would have much faster progress than you would have otherwise had?…
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