Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedHal Varian: prediction
19 Jun 2019 Conversations with Tyler Hal Varian on Taking the Academic Approach to Business
“You go to the auction that’s sort of second best because then you have a better chance of beating the dealer. So there’s a lot of — I don’t know — common-sense sort of strategies that people use in this, and I think there are inefficiencies that could be exploited, at least at these small-scale auctions with nonprofessional buyers.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Hal Varian
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 19 Jun 2019
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…But if there aren’t many auctions where everyone is experienced, then, on average, we see winner’s curse? When I started out at the University of Michigan and wanted to furnish my first house, I would go to auctions. One of the rules of thumb that I developed was, you never go to the auction that has the best stuff because everybody’s there. You go to the auction that’s sort of second best because then you have a better chance of beating the dealer. So there’s a lot of — I don’t know — common-sense sort of strategies that people use in this, and I think there are inefficiencies that could be exploited, at least at these small-scale auctions with nonprofessional buyers. Why doesn’t business use more prediction markets? They would seem to make sense, right? Bet on ideas. Aggregate information. We’ve all read Hayek.…
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