Evidence receipt / uncertainty
Published · transcript-backedDylan Patel: uncertainty
13 Mar 2026 Dwarkesh Podcast Dylan Patel — Deep dive on the 3 big bottlenecks to scaling AI compute
“Then you’ll have this insane margin that ASML and TSMC should have been charging. But the thing is, I don’t know if ASML and TSMC will ever agree to this.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Dylan Patel
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- uncertainty
- Recorded
- 13 Mar 2026
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…But it sounds like you’re saying they couldn’t even increase production if they wanted to, given the supply chain. Right. But that’s exactly the market in which… If they can’t increase production, just like TSMC cannot increase production that fast, and yet demand is mooning, then the obvious solution is to arbitrage this. You and I know demand is way higher than they’re projecting and their capability to build. You arbitrage this by locking up the capacity, doing a forward contract, and then trying to sell it at a later date once other people realize everything is fucked and we don’t have enough capacity. Then you’ll have this insane margin that ASML and TSMC should have been charging. But the thing is, I don’t know if ASML and TSMC will ever agree to this. Let me ask you about power now. It sounds like you think power can be arbitrarily scaled.…
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