Paul Romer: recommendation

Transcript context

…Many people have supported mass testing plans. Of course, you’ve been in the lead here. Why do you think they’re not getting more support? Because the benefit-cost ratio, if you can pull it off, seems to be quite high. Yeah. I’ve actually been working — oddly, mind you, I’m the theorist criticizing the use of models, so, go figure — but what have I been doing recently? I’ve been using a model to try and figure out, what is actually the value of an additional test relative to its cost? Models definitely have their role, but you’ve got to stick to the idea that a fact beats a theory every time. Now, the thing is, just very clear, that a test is worth a lot more than it would cost us to provide. Why aren’t we delivering more? I think there’s a genuine confusion and puzzlement about how to increase the supply of tests. And because people don’t know how to go about increasing it, they say it’s not possible. They treat it as if it’s just something beyond our control. I think we have to look carefully at what changes should we make in policy to increase the supply of tests. One part of that, as I’ve been saying, is we just have to pay for them. If we put up enough money, we can get tests. It’s like I’ve been saying: if we spent about twice as much on tests as we spend on soda, we could have all the tests we need, like 23 million tests a day. So first, you’ve got to provide money. Because tests are a public good, this has got to be money that comes from the government. It’s hard to get there with having consumers pay. But the Congress has allocated $25 billion. There’s a proposal now for another $75 billion from the Democratic plan. So, we’re getting there on the money. The other side, which frankly, I’m in this position — think about what I was saying before — I’m generally in the position of defending regulation. The more I’ve looked at the role of the FDA in holding back progress in testing, the more I’ve concluded this is a case where we have to say, as economists often say, “This regulation is just getting the cost-benefit tradeoff wrong.” It’s way too restrictive. There’s little harm from tests. Tests don’t hurt people. It’s not like a vaccine or a pharmaceutical agent, so that the FDA is just needlessly slowing down innovation that could otherwise flourish. So, pay some money, and then get the FDA out of the way. And then all of these very clever researchers and university labs all across this country — they could give us all the tests we need. Germany has done a great deal with testing, as you know. But at least now, as we’re speaking, as of, I think, May 12th, their R is still over one. Does that worry you? Does testing really get you into the promised land if you’re not a small island?…

Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.