Lex Fridman: uncertainty

Transcript context

…Incredible movie about virtual reality. Being an avatar and living in VR, the story was a mess, but the aesthetics, the world that build up was incredible and I thought, we’re five years away. I’m going to be living in VR now. I’m just going to be floating around. I’m going to be an avatar. This is where most humans can spend most of the day. That didn’t happen. We’re 30 years later, VR is still not here. It’s here for gaming. It’s here for some specialized applications. My oldest loves playing Gorilla Tag. I don’t know if you’ve tried that. That’s basically the hottest VR game. Wonderful. It’s great. It’s really hard to predict the future because we just don’t know. And then when you factor into AI and you have even the smartest people go like, “I don’t think we fully understand how this works.” But then on the flip side, you have Moore’s law that seems to work for many, many, many years in decreasing the size of transistor, for example. Flash didn’t take over the internet, but Moore’s law worked, so we don’t know which one AI is. It is what it is. And this is what I find so fascinating to, I forget who did this presentation, but someone in the web community, this great presentation on the history of the airplane. So you go from the Wright brothers flying in, what was 1903 or something like that, and 40 years later you have a jet flight, just an unbelievable amount of progress in four decades. Then in ’56, I think it was, the whole design for the Boeing 747 century precursor was designed and basically nothing has happened since. Just minor tweaks and improvements on the flying experience since the ’50s. Somehow, if you were to predict where flying was going to go and you were sitting in ’42 and you’d seen, you’d remember the Wright brothers flying in oh three and you were seeing that jet engines coming, you’re like, “We’re going to fly to the stars in another two decades.” We’re going to invent super mega hypersonic flights that’s going to traverse the earth in two hours, and then that didn’t happen. It tapped out. This is what’s so hard about predicting the future. We can be so excited in the moment because we’re drawing a line through early dots on a chart, and it looks like those early dots is just going up into the right and sometimes it’s just flattened out. This is also one of those things where we have so much critical infrastructure, for example, that still runs on COBOL, that about five humans around the world really understand truly, deeply that it’s possible for society to lose a competence it still needs because it’s chasing the future. COBOL is still with us. This is one of the things I think about with programming. Ruby on Rails is at such a level now that in 50 years from now, it’s exceedingly likely that there’s still a ton of Ruby on Rails systems running around now, very hard to predict what that exact world is going to be like, but yesterday’s weather tells us that if there’s still COBOL code from the ’70s operating social security today, and we haven’t figured out a clean way to convert that, let alone understand it, we should certainly be humble about predicting the future. I don’t think any of the programmers who wrote that COBOL code back in the ’70s had any idea that in 2025 checks were still being cut off the business logic that they had encoded back then. But that just brings me to the conclusion on the question for what should a young programmer do? You’re not going to be able to predict the future. No one’s going to be able to predict the future. If you like programming, you should learn programming. Now, is that going to be a career forever? I don’t know, but what’s going to be a career forever? Who knows? A second ago we thought that it was the blue-collar labor that was going to be abstracted. First, it was the robots that were going to take over. Then Gen AI comes out, and then all the artists suddenly look like, “Holy shit, is this going to do all animation now? Is going to do all music now?”…

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