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…m to go with someone safe, someone, you know, inside the company, someone with a long experience running a major division, maybe someone from the hardware side of the business, um, since that's where, you know, most of Apple's mojo has been coming from recently. But I think this is a company that is sort of coming to the realization, albeit slowly and belatedly, that it needs to shake something up. It is a stagnant, dormant company that is coasting on its laurels that it received during the tenure of Steve Jobs and the early years of Tim Cook. And I think that there is an outside chance, I would put it at maybe 20% or so, that the Apple board uh gets Tim Cook's retirement notice and decides, you know what, we got to go with a dark horse here. >> Who do you think that dark horse will be? >> Okay, I have three ideas. >> Okay, >> again, not saying that >> Katy Perry, >> not Katy Perry. >> Okay, >> number one, Johnny IV. >> Okay, >> Johnny IV, of course, longtime Apple design chief, worked hand in hand with Steve Jobs. If Apple were trying to convince the public and investors that it had still had that special Steve Jobs magic in its DNA, um that it was returning to its roots as a design-led company, what better symbolic gesture could they make than by bringing Johnny IV away from Open AI where he was recently acquired to do a hardware product there and convincing him to come back and take up the flag and lead Apple into a bold new era that is really a bold old era. >> That's not gonna happen. So, who's number two? Number two, also probably not going to happen. Brian Chesy, >> CEO of Airbnb. >> Now, Brian Chesy has been running Airbnb. That's his baby. I don't actually expect him to leave, but I think this is the rare job that could actually convince him to leave Airbnb and do something new. He is uh known to be a huge Apple fanboy, a huge Steve Jobs fanboy. He has studied the careers of top Apple executives uh closely. And I think if the Apple board were looking for someone from the outside who's still very familiar with Apple's culture and its processes and the way it makes money, uh, it could do worse than Brian Chesy. >> Well, I absolutely think he would do that job. And for this reason, who wants to run Airbnb? Oh my gosh, come on. No thanks. >> Yes. Okay, I have a third Darkhorse candidate. This is what this one. Oo, this one would be a real humdinger. Uh, and that is Mirram Maratti. Mirror Morati, the former uh open AI executive, now CEO of Thinking Machines Lab, a very buzzy AI startup, but not one that has uh spent a lot of time releasing products this year. Um, I think there is a very remote chance, maybe I would put this at sub 1% um, that Apple in its sort of attempt to reclaim some authority in the AI market would acquire Thinking Machines Lab, bring Meera and her team into Apple, and maybe as a result of that deal, they say, "You know what? You're pretty good at this AI stuff. You should run the company." >> Interesting. I had trouble seeing that happen unless like a virus wiped out some significant portion of the population. and they thought who is kind of still around and they're like what about thinking machines? Are they are le seeing that happen unless like a virus wiped out some significant portion of the population. and they thought who is kind of still around and they're like what about thinking machines? Are they are they still up and running over there? So that's how I could see this happening. >> Okay. Well, that's that's why it's my low confidence prediction. Uh but if this happens, I will be able to say I told you so. >> Well, Kevin, as always, I appreciate you going way way out on a limb with these predictions and um you know, it's and it's making me wish that I had, you know, perhaps gone further out on a limb. Uh, but I do think when the dust settles at the end of next year, I'm going to have gotten more of mine right than you will have on yours. >> Well, that that's why we do these predictions at confidence intervals. You're not If you're batting a thousand, you're doing it wrong. >> That's true. But unfortunately, I am still batting a thousand. Anyways, what else is on the show? >> Okay. Well, that's our predictions. And Casey, you wanted to make one more set of predictions. That's right. This year, talk about that. >> So, here's the thing. I I I imagine listeners may get to the end of the segment and say, "Okay, guys, you know, thanks for these predictions. Here's what I really want to know. What is going to be the state of the AI bubble at the end of 2026? Is it still going to be foamy and frothy like it feels right now or is there going to be a major change in the landscape?" Kevin, what say you to that? >> Yeah, so this uh sort of separate category of AI bubble prediction, I think we are going to see some economic turmoil as a result of AI in 2026. But I do not think we are going to see the kind of calamitous bubble pop market collapse that some people have predicted. I think Nvidia, uh, Microsoft, Google, Open AI, Anthropic, these sort of tentpole AI companies will mostly be fine. I think there may be some startups that raised money at high valuations that will have to either do a down round or be acquired at a discount. um sell themselves off for parts, things like that. I I'm skeptical of some of these so-called Neoclouds, the companies like Coreweave that sort of exist to rent GPUs and other AI infrastructure to the big suppliers. I think they might they might struggle in 2026, but I would be very surprised if we have sort of a a single huge dot style collapse in 2026. Um, and so I don't want to make a prediction to that effect. But I do think that one possible thing that could happen next year is that there are companies that are so-called SAS companies, software as a service companies that start to really struggle. And why are they struggling? Because these are companies like a Salesforce, like a Zenits, like a company that sells software to businesses on a premium subscription plan. I think that some of those companies customers may start building software themselves because now with these AI coding tools, they can spin up a custom CRM, a custom benefits manager, a custom payroll software that suits their needs exactly and they can do it at a fraction of the cost of buying a subscription from one of these big an spin up a custom CRM, a custom benefits manager, a custom payroll software that suits their needs exactly and they can do it at a fraction of the cost of buying a subscription from one of these big enterprise companies. So that is my AI bubble prediction is that some of the companies that claim that they are AI companies will start to struggle but will not be because this technology has not panned out or is not useful. It will actually be because the technology is quite good. >> I think that is a very sensible prediction. I think my views largely align with yours. I think at the end of 2026 things will still feel quite bubbly. And for this reason, the Frontier AI labs are going to be making tens of billions of dollars more revenue by the end of next year than they are this year. And that is going to prop up large swaths of this economy, right? Like there is absolutely no sign that businesses are going to stop buying services from these frontier labs or that consumers are are getting turned off of them. And that is the thing that is powering this whole bubble. Now, as you say, on the margins, some companies, you know, may not be able to figure out, and I wouldn't be surprised if we saw some big flame outs next year, maybe some of the companies that you mentioned, but I do think that at the end of 2026, this thing is like the engine is still going to be very, very hot and uh be interesting to see that happen. I'll make one more quick AI bubble prediction is which is that 2026 is the last year to buy a house in San Francisco because I think this year, this coming year, we will see the IPOs of at least one major AI company. Anthropic is uh reportedly planning an IPO for next year. We may also see OpenAI go public. Uh SpaceX uh may go public. Stripe may go public. There's sort of these other sort of very highly valued private companies that may go public. When that happens, their employees get rich and they go buy houses. And so if you are looking for real estate in San Francisco, the right time to buy was yesterday. Well, that's enough predictions. Let's do a production. When we come back, our annual Christmas carol. >> The people demand it. >> What's the worst that could happen? >> Well, we could sing. >> Well, Casey, the holidays are upon us, and as always, at this time of year, we have a special gift for our listeners. We do. And it's the sort of gift that I think maybe this is the year that Kevin will want to give this gift. Maybe he'll come up with a different gift. But in fact, it is the same gift that we will now regift to you in 2025. >> You hate this part of the episode, but I love it because is it is our annual chance to break out our maleifluous singing voices and show our audience the Christmas spirit. And this is my annual chance to remind you that Kevin is an accomplished singer and longtime choir member while I have the singing voice of a broken harmonica. >> Yes. Uh I think you're a very good singer for And uh it is also our annual chance to wear our ugliest holiday sweaters. If you are not watching this on YouTube, you are missing out. Uh because you are wearing a sweater with Santa as a golfer.…

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