Joe Studwell: prediction

Transcript context

…How permanent do you think are the current borders of Africa, say over the next 30, 40 years? Not 500 years out, but the foreseeable future. I think, Tyler, that we will continue to see the form that we’ve seen since independence in Africa. I’m sure you’re aware that the African Union, really, since inception, has operated to head off any changes in borders in Africa. That is really because the leading politicians have always taken the view that if you let African borders change once in one state, you open the door to absolute mayhem in this ethnically very diverse continent. So, there is very built-in, hardwired AU opposition to any change in borders, and you get classic cases where no one will even talk about it. For instance, the Somalis, where Somalis are split between Ethiopia, northeast Kenya, British Somaliland, and is it French and then Italian Somaliland? I can’t even remember that. It’s a five-way split. They went to the AU back in the ’60s and have done it subsequently, said, “This is ridiculous. We’re all Somalis. Why are we living in five different countries?” And the AU won’t touch it. As I say, that is because the received opinion of the senior leaders in the AU has been, if you start changing borders in Africa, you’ll never stop it. I suspect that will remain the case going forward because the fear is there. Really, the only case of a border change that you have in Africa since the Second World War is when Eritrea split from Ethiopia, and that was the result of a referendum that was 99 percent. But as we’re taping in late January, 2026, it at least seems as if the US and France will recognize Somaliland, and the UAE. And Israel already has. Israel probably wouldn’t do that on its own without assurances. So that will be a border change. Doesn’t that, in fact, predict mayhem under your theory? Which is, in fact, my expectation, I’m sorry to say.…

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