Saagar Enjeti: belief

Transcript context

…Yeah. For each candidate, Trump is probably the extreme version of that. There’s a distribution of the possible trajectories their administration might result in, and the range of possible trajectories is just much wider with Trump. Yeah, you’re describing a Bayesian theory, right? I think that’s actually a really useful framework for the world, is that people are really too binary. So like you said, there’s a theoretical possibility, I guess, of a communist takeover of government and of fascist takeover of government under Kamala Harris or Donald Trump. The realistic probability, I would give it 0.05% probably in both directions. But there are a lot of things that can happen that are bad, that are not Hitlerian or fascist. There are a lot of things that happen that are really good, that are not FDR New Deal style. One of the worst things politicians do is they describe themselves in false historical ways. So in Washington, one of the most overused phrases is made history. I’m like, “If you actually read history, most of these things are just…” They’re not even footnotes. They’re the stuff that the historians flip past, and they’re like, “What a stupid bucking thing.” I’m talking about things that ruled American politics. What if I told you that the Panama Canal Treaty was one of the most important fights in modern American politics? Nobody thinks about that today. It ruled American politics at that time. It genuinely is a footnote, but that’s not how it felt at the time. So that’s another thing I want people to take away. You tragically missed the UFO hearings.…

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