Joscha Bach: prediction

Transcript context

…There’s a lot of hype. Is some of the hype justified, which is, which isn’t? What are your thoughts high level? I find that large language models do help us coding. It’s an extremely useful application that is for a lot of people taking stack overflow out of their life in exchange for something that is more efficient. I feel that ChatGPT is like an intern that I have to micromanage. I have been working with people in the past who were less capable than ChatGPT. I’m not saying this because I hate people, but they personally as human beings, there was something present that was not there in ChatGPT, which was why I was covering for them. But ChatGPT has an interesting ability. It does give people superpowers and the people who feel threatened by them are the prompt completers. They are the people who do what ChatGPT is doing right now. If you are not creative, if you don’t build your own thoughts, if you don’t have actual plans in the world, and your only job is to summarize emails and to expand simple intentions into emails again, then ChatGPT might look like a threat. But I believe that it is a very beneficial technology that allows us to create more interesting stuff and make the world more beautiful and fascinating if we find to build it into our life in the right ways. I’m quite fascinated by these large language models, but I also think that they are by no means the final development. It’s interesting to see how this development progresses. One thing that the out-of-the-box vanilla language models have as a limitation is that they have still some limited coherence and ability to construct complexity. Even though they exceed human abilities to do what they can do one shot, typically, when you write a text with a language model or using it or when you write code with a language model, it’s not one shot because there won’t be bugs in your program and design errors and compiler error and so on. Your language model can help you to fix those things. But this process is out of the box not automated yet. There is a management process that also needs to be done. There are some interesting developments BabyAGI and so on that are trying to automate this management process as well. I suspect that soon we are going to see a bunch of cognitive architectures where every module is in some sense a language model or something equivalent. Between the language models, we exchange suitable data structures, not English, and produce compound behavior of this whole thing. To do some of the “prompt engineering” for you. They create these cognitive architectures that do the prompt engineering and you’re just doing the high, high-level meta prompt engineering.…

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