Nathan Lambert: belief

Transcript context

…So you think basically a superhuman coder is almost unachievable meaning, because of the jagged nature of the thing, you’re just always going to have gaps in capabilities? I think it’s assigning completeness to something where the models are kind of superhuman at some types of code, and I think that will continue. And people are creative, so they’ll utilize these incredible abilities to fill in the weaknesses of the models and move really fast. There will always be, for a long time, this dance between the humans enabling this thing that the model can’t do, and the best AI researchers are the ones that can enable this superpower. And I think those lines, compared to what we already see… I think like Claude Code for building a website, you can stand up a beautiful website in a few hours or do data analysis. But the whole thing is going to keep getting better at these things, and we’ll pick up some new code skills and stuff along the way. Linking to what’s happening in big tech, this AI 2027 report leans into the singularity idea where I think research is messy and social and largely in the data in ways that AI models can’t process. But what we do have today is really powerful, and these tech companies are all collectively buying into this with tens of billions of dollars of investment. So we are going to get some much better version of ChatGPT, a much better version of Claude Code than we already have. I think that it’s just hard to predict where that is going, but the bright clarity of that future is why some of the most powerful people in the world are putting so much money into this. And I think it’s just kind of small differences—we don’t actually know what a better version of ChatGPT is, but also can it automate AI research? I would say probably not, at least in this timeframe. Big tech is going to spend $100 billion much faster than we get an automated AI researcher that enables an AI research singularity. So you think your prediction would be, if this is even a useful milestone, more than 10 years out?…

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