Barkha Dutt: prediction

Transcript context

…For its level of income and education, India seems to have a relatively low birth rate or total fertility rate. For Hindus, they seem to be just about at replacement fertility, and that’s been the case for what, seven years? Why do you think that is? Why is child-rearing so relatively unattractive in India, especially amongst Hindus? That’s such an interesting question because one of the most politicized conversations in India is around population growth. Of course, the suggestion or the innuendo has always been that, one day, Muslims will outnumber Hindus because Muslims are growing at a galloping pace. Actually, the data tells you — and this is well documented, both within India and in a recent survey that was released by Pew— that, though the rate of growth is higher among Muslims, definitely, than it is among Hindu communities, the rate of decline is also now the sharpest because there was a much higher rate of growth among Muslims, and that the Muslims will never outnumber Hindus. But would I take that — to take your question — for there being a lack of enthusiasm for child-rearing? Not true. This has been a decades-old fight to get India’s population under control, and it is finally starting to yield results, which is why I actually disagree with legislations that are now being proposed in several parts of India to actually either incentivize or penalize those who have more than two children. I think penalties don’t necessarily work. Incentives can, but penalties certainly don’t. We also have the added issue of female feticide, which is girls who are killed in their womb before they’re allowed to be brought into this world because of the premium that is still placed, very much across classes, on a boy child. I think what you’re dealing with when you quoted those numbers, Tyler, is actually the success of India’s family planning program, where there has been a very, very strong awareness campaign around urging families to not have more than two children, and we are finally within striking distance of that figure. Will India eventually become underpopulated, and it will be quite an old country before it’s ever truly rich, and have an inverse-pyramid problem of supporting everyone if that’s the case?…

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