Raza Habib: prediction

Transcript context

…what would you point to, to encourage people who feel like they've missed you know, the boom? I, I just think that The, I guess like a question to ask yourself if you missed chat GPT was why did you miss it? Yeah. And the people who didn't miss it, and I'm not necessarily including us in this. I think we were relatively late, even though we were earlier than most, like what did the people who get it right really grok or what did they believe, right? What did Ilya Suskovor or Shane Legg, the people who kind of saw this early, and I think it was a conviction about. Deep learning and scale and projecting forwards that, okay, if the, if we just project forwards the current improvements from deep learning and assume they continue, like what will the world look like? And if you, and if you do that today, and obviously it's extrapolating, right? That's not a, that's not a theory based prediction. It's just an extrapolation. But the extrapolation has been right for a really long time. So we should take it seriously. Yeah. If you extrapolate that forward just a year or two then you find that, you know, you would expect the models to be phenomenally better than they are today. And they're already at a scale where you expect large economic disruption, right? Even if GPT 4 doesn't get better. And you know, if all we get is GPT vision plus the current model, we know that there's loads of useful applications to be built. People are doing it right now. They're going to get better, right? This is the worst they're ever going to be. So if this is what's possible today, you know, I think the hardest challenge actually is to take seriously the fact that in the not too distant future, you will have models even more capable than the ones we have now. How do you build for that world? I think it's a difficult thing to do, but it's certainly extremely early. Yeah, I think the quote that resonated with me this past week was Nat Friedman saying, imagine Everything that we have now with six orders of magnitude, more compute. By the end of the decade and plan for…

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