Paul Christiano: belief

Transcript context

…Right? So people governments are talking about it as they are now, and people aren’t. But okay, so let’s talk about the slowing down, because this is also all. One subcomponent of the overall impact. And I was just saying this to briefly give the roadmap for the overall too long answer. There’s a question of what’s the calculus for speeding up? I think speeding up is pretty rough. I think speeding up locally is a little bit less rough. And then, yeah, I think that the effect, like the overall effect size from doing alignment work on reducing takeover risk versus speeding up AI is pretty good. I think it’s pretty good. I think you reduce takeover risk significantly before you speed up AI by a year or whatever. Okay, got it. If it’s good to, like, slowing down AI is good, presumably because it gives you more time to do alignment. But alignment also helps speed up AI. Rlhf is alignment, and it help with Chat GPT, which sped up AI. So I actually don’t understand how the feedback loop nets out, other than the fact that if AI is happening, you need to do alignment at some point. Right? So, I mean, you can’t just not do alignment.…

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