Evidence receipt / observation
Published · transcript-backedDwarkesh Patel: observation
6 Apr 2023 Dwarkesh Podcast Eliezer Yudkowsky — Why AI will kill us, aligning LLMs, nature of intelligence, SciFi, & rationality
“Something that makes you think the problem is twice as hard, you go from like 99% to like 99.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- observation
- Recorded
- 6 Apr 2023
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…My model no doubt has many errors. The trick would be an error someplace where that just makes everything work better. Usually when you’re trying to build a rocket and your model of rockets is lousy, it doesn’t cause the rocket to launch using half the fuel, go twice as far, and land twice as precisely on target as your calculations claimed. Though most of the room for updates is downwards, right? Something that makes you think the problem is twice as hard, you go from like 99% to like 99. 5%. If it’s twice as easy. You go from 99 to 98? Sure. Wait, sorry. Yeah, but most updates are not — this is going to be easier than you thought. That sure has not been the history of the last 20 years from my perspective. The most favorable updates are — Yeah, we went down this really weird side path where the systems are legibly alarming to humans and humans are actually alarmed by then and maybe we get more sensible global policy.…
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