John O. Brennan: prediction

Transcript context

…Say I measure as conscientious in some of these tests. Does that mean I’m actually likely to be conscientious? It’s a good question. I think just because someone tests in a certain way doesn’t mean that they’re going to actually follow through and be that way. It depends on the rigor and the strength of the test. But I’m not going to stand behind any particular test and say that it is a clear, clear indicator. I think there are some tests that are better indicators than others. For example, in the agency, we use the polygraph. The polygraph itself can be accurate or not, but we have found that in the polygraph sessions, a lot of things come out from a person because they are concerned that the polygraph machine will register a falsehood if they tell it. Again, it is used as a tool. It needs to be a part of a group of things that are going to be used in order to determine whether or not somebody is worthy of employment or telling the truth or not. In your book, you seem to treat polygraph evidence as very reliable. Our legal system usually treats it as not so reliable. The research literature is somewhat skeptical from randomized control trials. How reliable do you think it is?…

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