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Published · transcript-backed

Jeff Holmes: uncertainty

30 Dec 2020 Conversations with Tyler Conversations with Tyler 2020 Retrospective

“I’m going to ask you to channel your — I don’t know — your super forecasting abilities.”

— Jeff Holmes

Source trail

Everything needed to verify it.

Speaker
Jeff Holmes
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
uncertainty
Recorded
30 Dec 2020
Publisher
Conversations with Tyler

Transcript context

…We have a draft of about 80,000 words, if I recall. It is not finished, but it is well along. The when depends exactly on the publisher. Of course, we’re recording this before it is being presented to all you listeners. I expect that by the time you’re hearing this, I will know when, but at the moment, I don’t quite know exactly when. But it’s well along. It’s not a figment dream in our heads. It exists. It needs to be better. It needs to be finished, but it will come out, and not five years from now. All right. Let’s switch to thinking about the year ahead. I’m going to ask you to channel your — I don’t know — your super forecasting abilities. First question: will you be moving to Substack in the coming year? I write for free on Marginal Revolution. I’m fully aware that people who do Substack can earn a lot of money, but I’d actually rather have the bigger audience. As you all know, Conversations with Tyler is free. There’re no ads. It’s fully open. I just think that to have audiences like this is a privilege greater than the money. I know that’s weird, but —…

Stored transcript either side of the excerpt. The highlighted words are the published quote; the surrounding text is unedited source, never generated.

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