Paul Christiano: belief

Transcript context

…Okay, so what about the scaling picture do you think is most likely to be wrong? Yeah. So we've talked a little bit about how good is the qualitative extrapolation, how good are people at comparing? So this is not like the picture being qualitative wrong. This is just quantitatively. It's very hard to know how far off you are. I think a qualitative consideration that could significantly slow things down is just like right now you get to observe this really rich supervision from basically next word prediction, or in practice, maybe you're looking at a couple of sentences prediction. So getting this pretty rich supervision, it's plausible that if you want to automate long horizon tasks like being an employee over the course of a month, that that's actually just considerably harder to supervise. Or that you basically end up driving costs. Like the worst case here is that you drive up costs by a factor that's like linear in the horizon over which the thing is operating. And I still consider that just quite plausible. Can you dump that down? You're driving up a cost about of what in the linear and the does the horizon mean?…

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