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Jeff Dean: prediction

12 Feb 2025 Dwarkesh Podcast Jeff Dean & Noam Shazeer — 25 years at Google: from PageRank to AGI

“" Or even below that, some people are quantizing models to two bits or one bit, and I think that's a trend that definitely –”

— Jeff Dean

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Speaker
Jeff Dean
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
prediction
Recorded
12 Feb 2025
Publisher
Dwarkesh Podcast

Transcript context

…What are the trade-offs that you're considering changing for future versions of TPU to integrate how you're thinking about algorithms? I think one general trend is we're getting better at quantizing or having much more reduced precision models. We started with TPUv1, and we weren't even quite sure we could quantize and model for serving with eight-bit integers. But we sort of had some early evidence that seemed like it might be possible. So we're like, "Great, let's build the whole chip around that." And then over time, I think you've seen people able to use much lower precision for training as well. But also the inference precision has gone. People are now using INT4 or FP4, which sounded like, if you said to someone like we're going to use FP4, like a supercomputing floating point person 20 years ago, they'd be like, "What? That's crazy. We like 64 bits in our floats. " Or even below that, some people are quantizing models to two bits or one bit, and I think that's a trend that definitely – One bit? Just like a zero-or-one?…

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