Ilya Sutskever: uncertainty

Transcript context

…I just want to better understand how you see the future unrolling. Currently, we have these different companies, and you expect their approach to continue generating revenue but not get to this human-like learner. So now we have these different forks of companies. We have you, we have Thinking Machines, there’s a bunch of other labs. Maybe one of them figures out the correct approach. But then the release of their product makes it clear to other people how to do this thing. I think it won’t be clear how to do it, but it will be clear that something different is possible, and that is information. People will then be trying to figure out how that works. I do think though that one of the things not addressed here, not discussed, is that with each increase in the AI’s capabilities, I think there will be some kind of changes, but I don’t know exactly which ones, in how things are being done. I think it’s going to be important, yet I can’t spell out what that is exactly. By default, you would expect the company that has that model to be getting all these gains because they have the model that has the skills and knowledge that it’s building up in the world. What is the reason to think that the benefits of that would be widely distributed and not just end up at whatever model company gets this continuous learning loop going first?…

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