Trenton Bricken: belief

Transcript context

…Will GOFAI be part of the intelligence explosion? You talked about synthetic data, but in fact it would be writing its own source code in some important way. There was an interesting paper that you can use diffusion to come up with model weights. I don't know how legit that was or whatever, but something like that. So GOFAI is good old-fashioned AI, right? Can you define that? Because when I hear it, I think “if else” statements for symbolic logic. I actually want to make sure we fully unpack the model improvement increments. I don't want people to come away with the perspective that this is super bearish and models aren't going to get much better. I want to emphasize that the jumps that we've seen so far are huge. Even if those continue on a smaller scale, we're still in for extremely smart, very reliable agents over the next couple of orders of magnitude. We didn't fully close the thread on the narrow window thing. Let's say GPT-4 cost a hundred million dollars or whatever. You have the 1B run, 10B run, 100B run. All seem very plausible by private company standards.…

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