Robert Wright: belief

Transcript context

…Mm-hmm. But it is to just make it clear that something we didn't even think about when we occupied Iraq, which is that from Iran's point of view, that is an existential threat, okay? We just said they were part of the axis of evil. Now we've got troops in this country that had this huge war with Iran, and we supported Iraq in the war and on and on. It, so it's just to, to make us understand what the likely consequences of things we do are, okay? That it, it's not about saying, "Oh, well then you're right because you're viewing things this way." It's just, it's just to try to make people more predictable from our point of view so that we can You know, proceed more wisely. Now, on China, I would say, first of all, job one, acknowledge what you just said, that I think the degree of kind of transparency that is gonna be required with AI for all of us to feel reassured is much more challenging to achieve than in the case of nuclear weapons, okay? That, that's a relatively easy case, to have an arms control agreement about nuclear weapons. So we should think about that. Now, one implication of that, I think, is that that should help us understand some of the virtues of economic and cultural and scientific engagement, because there's something... I'm trying to popularize this phrase, organic transparency, because I do think, you know, when business people, Chinese and Americans are having drinks, and scientists are, and performers are, and so on, you just l- know more about what's going on in the other country than you would otherwise. I, I am hopeful that AI, once we grasp the implications, will give us, will foster the relationship to China that we're accustomed to having with, like, allies, right? Like, you know, during the Cold War with, like, France, England, whatever, we're pretty sure there's no, you know, deeply anti-American thing going on there, and that's possi- That's for various reasons, but one of them is we're so deeply engaged, so much travel back and forth, corporate interaction, that we just, we know more. Like, we'd know if something were afoot. And I think that is an important, like, policy thing, is, is to see... Now, economic engagement can have its downside byproducts, e- especially if it happens too fast, without, you know... And, and I could go on about that, but I think there's tremendous virtue there. I, I think we need to do fewer things that gratuitously make China feel threatened by us to no good effect, and I think the rhetoric has been so sloppy from our side that there's been a lot of just literally gratuitous threatening effect. And then we need to do what, happily, Trump is starting to do. Sit down and talk to them about AI and, and see where the conversation goes. But I, I, I think the main thing is to, is to slowly, uh, move them out of the psychological category of adversary and have us move out of that category from their point of view. I mean, competitor, fine, but I think a lot of things become possible. wly, uh, move them out of the psychological category of adversary and have us move out of that category from their point of view. I mean, competitor, fine, but I think a lot of things become possible. And again, I think the magnitude of the AI challenge is gonna be- become more apparent and make certain things more plausible than they are. But in a way, the main thing I'd say is, look, my reading is that we are going to have to collaborate pretty extensively with China to get through the AI revolution in good shape, um, partly because it will be so domestically destabilizing otherwise in the US if it's just a... You know, if we proceed at a headlong pace. And so even if it's a huge challenge, I think it's in our self-interest to pursue it and take it seriously. And if we fail, we fail. But my view is if you think that headlong race to superintelligence is a way to keep us out of a horrible war or to keep our own country from being destabilized, I just think that's wrong. And the final thing I'd say is a destabilized nation where too much is happening too fast and there's disorder and there's chaos, that is the backdoor to the kind of authoritarianism that supposedly the race with China is going to avoid, right? It's like when there's chaos and disorder, that's when authoriant- authoritarian takeover from within is most plausible.…

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