Lex Fridman: belief

Transcript context

…I definitely believe in win-win, but with a big asterisk, you can have win-win, but it can feel like win-lose, which is, it’s not just are people getting more, it has a lot to do with do people feel they’re getting more, and do people feel they’re getting what’s fair and equal? So you could have a situation, for instance, if you look at the history of going back to Chile, it has steady growth, steady income growth, steady diminution of inequality, and a high level of discontent within the society and a high level of belief that the society is corrupt and unfair. And that’s what matters, how people feel about it, how people perceive it, it matters. And we saw this recently, you can’t just come out with a bunch of statistics and tell people you’re winning in this game if they feel like they’re losing. So that goes to all the non-rational factors and all the comparative factors that people have when they think about where they are vis-a-vis other people in society. So we’re just incredibly social creatures. We’re incredibly attuned to our status to rising and falling to where we sit vis-a-vis others. And so that absolutely has to be attended to. It can’t just be an economic analysis. That’s so interesting that the experience of the economy is different than the reality of the economy. On the topic of corruption, I think the reality of corruption versus the perception of corruption is really important in a lot of these nations. You take Ukraine for example, the perception of corruption has a big impact on the economy. You don’t want to invest. You’re very cautious as a business person. The reality of corruption can be way different than the actual perception. But if narratives stay cold, it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, that it has a big effect on the psychology of the people involved. It’s interesting. Yeah. This goes back to Keynes’s analysis of the great depression. If people won’t invest, if they’re spooked, if the investing classes are spooked, you could be in real trouble. And in some ways, this simple analysis of the problem and proposal of a solution was enough to restore eventually the path to academic prosperity, right? That’s Franklin Roosevelt, “nothing to fear, but fear itself.” The sense of we know we have a future, we have optimism, then you believe in it. And to go back to thinking about money, money works because we all believe in it. It’s a form of social trust, and it’s a form of belief and faith in our society and in the other people in it. And when that breaks down, the money system will break down as well.…

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