Ryan Greenblatt: belief

Transcript context

…I think this argument has three different parts. Now I want to evaluate each one of them. First is the argument that AI R&D is very verifiable. Second is the argument that if you automate AI R&D, you could get four or five years of progress in a single year. Third is the argument that what comes out the other end of four or five years of AI progress at the current pace, starting at the point whenever AI R&D is automated, is an AI where you can drop it on the job at basically anything you can imagine. You can drop it in Texas politics in the 1940s, and it outmaneuvers Lyndon Johnson. You can drop it in TSMC, and it learns how to do better process engineering at TSMC. It’s certainly a better video editor… My video editors are very excellent, but it is just, in general, better than humans at any given job that it finds itself trying to do. So I want to evaluate all of these sub-arguments that lead to basically getting ASI pretty soon after this benchmark, which you’re expecting by 2030 or something, right? I would say that I expect full automation of AI R&D perhaps somewhere around 2031, 2030. Getting to the “beats all humans on the job” milestone, maybe my median expectation is around 2033. But if I see AIs fully automating AI R&D, I think I’m expecting that probably within a year. The way the forecasting works out, the difference between medians is bigger than the median difference between milestones. Anyway, whatever. By the way, there’s this meme on the internet. Every time I’m trying to ask about people’s timelines, when I’m asking Dario or somebody, I’m always like, “Okay, how long before you automate my video editors?” There’s this meme of my video editor editing the podcast every time I listen to this. But the reason I do it is because I think it’s easy to get lost in abstractions when you talk about jobs you don’t understand well, and to very concretely understand what it takes to automate a job that I actually understand why it’s difficult for LLMs to currently take control over.…

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