Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedReid Hoffman: prediction
28 Jun 2023 Conversations with Tyler Reid Hoffman on the Possibilities of AI
“I think the chance that we won’t have at least five years of really interesting progress rounds to zero.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Reid Hoffman
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 28 Jun 2023
- Publisher
- Conversations with Tyler
Transcript context
…What’s the chance that we’re in a new AI winter? The next 10 years we’ll just spend developing applications of what we have. That will be amazing, but the sequel to GPT-4 won’t be that much better. I think the chance that we won’t have at least five years of really interesting progress rounds to zero. Even if the raw capabilities . . . Say you are an oracle from the future, and you tell me that the real scale curve is limited at GPT-4, and there’s not much coming. There’s still a bunch of tuning, there’s still a bunch of product specialization, there’s still a bunch of making it good for teachers and students, making it good for doctors, making it good for — But that’s applications, right? Like big breakthrough. GPT-4 feels like witchcraft compared to 2.…
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