Evidence receipt / uncertainty
Published · transcript-backedDwarkesh Patel: uncertainty
6 Apr 2023 Dwarkesh Podcast Eliezer Yudkowsky — Why AI will kill us, aligning LLMs, nature of intelligence, SciFi, & rationality
“From reading your writing from earlier, it seemed like a big part of your argument was like, look — I don’t know how many total mutations it was to get from chimps to humans, but it wasn’t that many mutations.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Dwarkesh Patel
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- uncertainty
- Recorded
- 6 Apr 2023
- Publisher
- Dwarkesh Podcast
Transcript context
…I am not sure I understand the question. Can you rephrase? Yes. From reading your writing from earlier, it seemed like a big part of your argument was like, look — I don’t know how many total mutations it was to get from chimps to humans, but it wasn’t that many mutations. And we went from something that could basically get bananas in the forest to something that could walk on the moon. Are you still expecting that sort of gain eventually between, I don’t know, like GPT-5 and GPT-6, or like some GPT-N and GPT-N+1? Or does it look smoother to you now? First of all, let me preface by saying that for all I know of the hidden variables of nature, it’s completely allowed that GPT-4 was actually just it. Ha ha ha. This is where it saturates. It goes no further. It’s not how I’d bet. But if nature comes back and tells me that, I’m not allowed to be like — “You just violated the rule that I knew about.” I know of no such rule prohibiting such a thing.…
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