Evidence receipt / belief
Published · transcript-backedNathan Lambert: belief
3 Feb 2025 Lex Fridman Podcast #459 – DeepSeek, China, OpenAI, NVIDIA, xAI, TSMC, Stargate, and AI Megaclusters
“The big picture is that I don’t think it’s going to be a cliff. I think a really good example of how growth changes is when Meta added stories.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- Nathan Lambert
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- belief
- Recorded
- 3 Feb 2025
- Publisher
- Lex Fridman Podcast
Transcript context
…not dealing with the hell that is. Some random platform SaaS company stuff not working perfectly and having to adjust workflows or random business automation cases that aren’t necessarily AI required. It’s just logic that needs to be built that no one has built. All of these things can go happen faster. And so I think software and then the other domain is industrial, chemical, mechanical engineers suck at coding just generally. And their tools like semiconductor engineers, their tools are 20 years old. All the tools run on XP including ASML lithography tools run on Windows XP. And a lot of the analysis happens in Excel, right? It’s just like, “Guys, you guys can move 20 years forward with all the data you have and gathered and do a lot better.” You need the engineering skills for software engineering to be delivered to the actual domain expert engineer. So I think that’s the area where I’m super-duper bullish of generally AI creating value. The big picture is that I don’t think it’s going to be a cliff. I think a really good example of how growth changes is when Meta added stories. So Snapchat was on an exponential, they added stories, it flatlined. Software engineers then up until the right, AI is going to come in, it’s probably just going to be flat. It’s not like everyone’s going to lose their job. It’s hard because the supply corrects more slowly. So the amount of students is still growing, and that’ll correct on a multi-year, like a year delay, but the amount of jobs will just turn and then maybe in 20, 40 years, it’ll be well down. But in the few years, there’ll never going to be the snap moment where it’s like software engineers aren’t useful. I think also the nature of what it means to be a programmer and what kind of jobs programmers do changes, because I think there needs to be a human in the loop of everything you’ve talked about. There’s a really important human in that picture of correcting the code, fixing-…
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