Stanley McChrystal: prediction

Transcript context

…If we think about today, say, the risk that China would make a more serious move against Taiwan, whether an outright attack or something extremely provocative, are we under- or overestimating that risk? And why are we making the kind of mistake we’re making? I think we’re probably underestimating that risk. When you consider China, you have to consider the sweep of their history and where they think they are now, the Middle Kingdom. And they are trying to avoid the idea that they’re being contained by any outside power, particularly the United States. Then you look at Taiwan itself. Taiwan, of course — Formosa in the minds of most Chinese — is a legitimate part of China. The idea that part of China is being occupied by former Chinese nationalists, becoming this somewhat independent entity, is like a rock in their shoe. It can’t help but be frustrating. If you look at it from their standpoint, one of their goals is to avoid containment. Another is to build up their national identity, which means controlling all of your territory, and then the idea that they want to be a more international power. I don’t necessarily mean that they are going to go into foreign wars, but they’re going to push back those who would stop them from being engaged in the world. I think the idea that they might do something on Taiwan — because it hasn’t happened for so many years, we tend to think it will never happen. We tend to think in terms of linear. If something hasn’t happened for a long time, it never will, and then we’re always shocked. So, you think we extrapolate too much from the relatively recent past?…

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