Mark Carney: belief

Transcript context

…To be clear, neither of us favor Scotland leaving, but if they did leave, should they choose the British pound, the euro, or a new currency of their own? I think the logic of the governing party in Scotland is that they would likely — they’re a little hedged on this, but part of the purpose of leaving — there are other motivations, but a part of the economic purpose would be to be part of the European Union. If they were part of the European Union, they would have to at least agree to be on a path to choosing the euro. There’s a challenge of retaining the pound and losing the integration of the financial system. It’s one of the financial risks there. The question is, would they have a time path so that they could move directly from sterling to euro? It’s a big, big issue, I don’t pretend to have the answer. I would think it would be more likely to choose the euro. Certainly, for Northern Island, if it were to leave — and we’re deeply into speculation here — it’s almost certain it would be the Euro. Would Scotland have a problem of oversized banks relative to GDP of an independent Scotland, and what should they do about that?…

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