Evidence receipt / prediction
Published · transcript-backedJohn Mearsheimer: prediction
18 Nov 2023 Lex Fridman Podcast #401 – John Mearsheimer: Israel-Palestine, Russia-Ukraine, China, NATO, and WW3
“We had a serious security competition from roughly 1947 to 1989 and we thankfully avoided war, probably came the closest in 1962 at the Cuban Missile Crisis. But we avoided it and I think we can avoid it here.”
Source trail
Everything needed to verify it.
- Speaker
- John Mearsheimer
- Attribution
- Verified speaker
- Claim type
- prediction
- Recorded
- 18 Nov 2023
- Publisher
- Lex Fridman Podcast
Transcript context
…Do you think there will be a war with China in the 21st century? I don’t know. My argument is there will be. There is right now a serious security competition and at the same time, there is a real possibility of war. Whether or not we avoid it is very hard to say. I mean, we did during the Cold War. We had a serious security competition from roughly 1947 to 1989 and we thankfully avoided war, probably came the closest in 1962 at the Cuban Missile Crisis. But we avoided it and I think we can avoid it here. Is it for sure? No. You’ve said that China won’t move on Taiwan militarily, in part because, as you said, amphibious operations are difficult. Why will China not move on Taiwan in your sense in the near future?…
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