Dwarkesh Patel: belief

Transcript context

…If we had the “country of geniuses in a data center”, we would know it. We would know it if you had the “country of geniuses in a data center”. Everyone in this room would know it. Everyone in Washington would know it. People in rural parts might not know it, but we would know it. We don’t have that now. That is very clear. Coming back to concrete prediction… Because there are so many different things to disambiguate, it can be easy to talk past each other when we’re talking about capabilities. For example, when I interviewed you three years ago, I asked you a prediction about what we should expect three years from now. You were right. You said, “We should expect systems which, if you talk to them for the course of an hour, it’s hard to tell them apart from a generally well-educated human.” I think you were right about that. I think spiritually I feel unsatisfied because my internal expectation was that such a system could automate large parts of white-collar work. So it might be more productive to talk about the actual end capabilities you want from such a system. I will basically tell you where I think we are.…

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