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Dan Balsam: belief

8 Aug 2026 The Cognitive Revolution Thinking in Silico: Goodfire CTO Dan Balsam on Concept Manifolds & a $1000/Month ML Research Agent

“I think that's fundamentally why bigger models work better and that's fundamentally why sparse MOEs work better.”

— Dan Balsam

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Speaker
Dan Balsam
Attribution
Verified speaker
Claim type
belief
Recorded
8 Aug 2026
Publisher
The Cognitive Revolution

Transcript context

…But I realized I don't have a great sense of how crowded, quote, unquote, it is inside models. I know that there's, like, lots of superposition and but I don't know what lots means. Right? It could be, like, it could be lots, but it's not a big deal, or it could be lots and it's, like, causing a lot of interference that gives rise to all sorts of weirdness and hard to expect that we're going to get reliable behavior. I wonder based on that work and I guess just all your experience, how where we are today with these, like, obviously increasingly giant models, are they still a real mess in there in a fundamental sense of, like, there's a ton of interference going on all the time and we we really can't expect clean behavior or we conversely, like, we should expect that weird seemingly minor perturbations are gonna cause these, like, random kind of discontinuities in behavior? Or are we approaching a regime at some point where there's enough space for the concepts to kinda spread out and, like Yeah. Have a little elbow room and not be colliding and causing so much interference trouble anymore? Is that something that we can kinda see our way to at this point? Well, yeah. I think that's fundamentally why bigger models work better and that's fundamentally why sparse MOEs work better. But it's like we're like out of the woods in terms of weird small it seems like we're still pretty easy it's it's still pretty easy for us to find these like small jailbreak, like random string type things that like you're like, what the hell is going on there? But clearly, there's enough of a mess in there that I found a a way to kind of use the mess to cause a problem. But is that do you think that that is there an end in sight to that with just, like, bigger and bigger spaces?…

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